Bolsonaro’s lead over Lula narrows ahead of Brazil runoff, polls show

I sondaggi indicano che il vantaggio di Bolsonaro su Lula si sta riducendo in vista del ballottaggio in Brasile


Brazilian presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro speaks as Brazilian presidential candidate Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva listens during a presidential debate, ahead of the runoff presidential election, in Sao Paulo, Brazil, October 18, 2026. REUTERS/Jean Car (Reuters)

SAO PAULO, Oct 19 (Reuters) - Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro’s lead over President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has narrowed ahead of an October 25 runoff, two polls showed on Monday, pointing to a close race between the right-wing lawmaker and the leftist incumbent.

The eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro unexpectedly led the first-round vote earlier this month, finishing nearly two points ahead of Lula, who is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term.

NEXUS/BTG PACTUAL POLL

• Flavio Bolsonaro would receive 46.5% of the vote in the runoff, compared with 45.9% for Lula, a Nexus poll commissioned by BTG Pactual showed

• An October 13 survey had Bolsonaro at 47.9% and Lula at 45.1%

• In valid votes, which exclude blank votes and undecided voters, Bolsonaro leads Lula 50.3% to 49.7%

• Nexus surveyed 2,002 people from October 16-18; margin of error 2 percentage points

ATLASINTEL/BLOOMBERG POLL

• According to an AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll, Bolsonaro would receive 49.8% of the vote, against 47.6% for Lula

• An October 9 poll had Bolsonaro at 51.1% and Lula at 45.7%

• In valid votes, Bolsonaro leads Lula 51.1% to 48.9%

• AtlasIntel surveyed 4,998 people from October 13-18; margin of error 1 percentage point

(Reporting by Gabriel Araujo; Editing by Isabel Teles)

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